ElecMayhem - you'd know this better than I would, and I could be totally off, but with these sorts of companies I don't get the feeling that a huge amount of market research is done. That would make sense, since that's a costly exercise and you've got a fairly small market to start with. But it really does feel to me that decisions often don't reflect what consumers want. EFX, for example, picked Rizzo as a first product not because he'd be the most popular, but because he presented less of a challenge in certain respects. I truly, truly believe that the product was doomed the second Rizzo was selected. I couldn't for the life of me see how they would get enough preorders to go to manufacture, and it seems I was right about that. Fozzie, for reasons I still cannot understand, apparently represented a huge, insurmountable engineering challenge. But people were keen. At the tradeshows there was apparently even some small amount of retailer interest (again, ElecMayhem, you'd know better than me!). Patterns for a "real" version had already been perfected by Terry Angus. But because there were such challenges (shipping, I can see...but what else?) with Fozzie, EFX decided they would go to market with a far less recognisable, less beloved character, rather than spending the extra time in development to solve those problems. And they were doomed to fail.
I can see it from here: both EFX and Sideshow Collectibles had better hope and pray that they never lose their Star Wars license. Because they are incapable of thinking about managing licensed properties in any way other than the Star Wars model. And that model now only works for Star Wars. It used to be that a company would buy a license and then milk it and stretch it out for as long as they could by holding off on releasing key characters, padding out lines with variants and repaints, and people would eat it up because consumers would be loyal to a line, or a completist. The only franchise to still command that sort of blind devotion is Star Wars. Collectors now will now dip in and out, buy perhaps just one item from a line, etc. The companies that are doing well for themselves these days don't try and make their lines last. They come out with the big heavy hitters immediately, and then if a line is successful well, then they might look at a lesser-known character, but they will more likely just release a variant.
The best example I can think of is Hot Toys (high end action figures). They do a lot of movie characters and have been very successful with Batman/The Dark Knight. The first two releases were Batman, and the Joker. Not Batman and Two-Face, or Commisioner Gordon and The Joker, or anything like that - they brought out the two figures everyone would want, straight off the bat. Because they know that people are fickle, and there is so much choice out there around what to spend money on. I don't know how they manage to make it financially viable to make one or two characters, dump the license and move on, but they have. I assume it's because they work under the assumption that they would rather be sure of selling 100 Batman and 100 Joker and ending the line there, than risk selling 100 Batman and only 20 Two-Face which wouldn't justify a second line being released. EFX were taking a huge gamble, trying to stretch out a line that was never going to be able to support more than one or two releases.
Travis, I'm almost certain you've got a strong marketing degree as well as a lot of experience behind you, am I right? But it seems so often companies like EFX grow out of what some fan started in his mom's garage. And that is so awesome that people can take what they love and make it their life's work. But it also means so often people are running a company with no business training.