Weekly Box Office and Film Discussion Thread

[Drtooth]

WOW! 300 really dropped in its second week

Is there any line in that movie memeworthy as "THIS! IS! SPARTAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!" yet?

At the risk of being a passive aggressive Muppet fan boy here, anyone else just annoyed by the presence of Divergent? It seems like a lackluster Hunger Games knockoff. And as a web community, I think I speak for all of us that we hope the Muppets has a stronger weekend B.O. than that thing.

I'm glad we're getting more movies with female heroic leads, but really?! That's the best we can do?

 

[mr3urious]

Need for Speed (a.k.a. the unofficial sequel to Breaking Bad) is at #3 now in its opening weekend. Good riddance to that.

 

[Drtooth]

It seems that it had little or no promotion. I didn't even hear of it opening. Plus, quite honestly, there's just an over-saturation of racing/driving movies lately. I don't see why so many are complaining about the over abundance about Super Hero/Comic book movies when there were just as many (if not, way too many anyway) racing/car movies last year. And 2 of them were kid's movies.

Then again, you have the Fast and Furious series of films. I'm no real fan of them, but it's an established franchise that delivers what it does best. Anything else would seem like a knockoff. The bare amount of Need for Speed previews I've seen (like one or two), it looked just like that.

 

[Muppet Master]

Hey guys, here's a box office news flash. On Friday Divergent, even with such a lackluster campaign and negative reviews managed a beefy $22.8 milliion on opening day. Meanwhile, struggling in second our very own Muppets Most Wanted. MMW gathered $4.66 million on opening day. Now if MMW had no campaign whatsoever, than it'd be an enormous start, BUT the muppets were on basically every talk show this month, everywhere you looked you saw Kermit or Piggy staring at you, when you walked down the street Kermit came and slapped the muppets logo on your forehead, and what do we get a total just shy of $5 million, and such positive reviews. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE! It also has such great reviews. Okay maybe I'm being a little hard on MMW, I mean it was a Friday and the kid auidence were at school and the parents were at work, so MMW could wind up at the $20 million mark, hopefully, but here's my forecast for MMW's opening weekend
Day 2: $7 million
Day 3: $5.44 million
Opening Weekend: $17 million
I hope MMW can manage at least that or Disney might ship them back to Columbia. Oh and in 3rd place came God's Not Dead with a surprising $2.8 million, even with literally NO campaign it managed to come close to MMW, it could even pass the $10 million mark.

 

[MissMusical12]

Hey guys, here's a box office news flash. On Friday Divergent, even with such a lackluster campaign and negative reviews managed a beefy $22.8 milliion on opening day. Meanwhile, struggling in second our very own Muppets Most Wanted. MMW gathered $4.66 million on opening day. Now if MMW had no campaign whatsoever, than it'd be an enormous start, BUT the muppets were on basically every talk show this month, everywhere you looked you saw Kermit or Piggy staring at you, when you walked down the street Kermit came and slapped the muppets logo on your forehead, and what do we get a total just shy of $5 million, and such positive reviews. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE! It also has such great reviews. Okay maybe I'm being a little hard on MMW, I mean it was a Friday and the kid auidence were at school and the parents were at work, so MMW could wind up at the $20 million mark, hopefully, but here's my forecast for MMW's opening weekend
Day 2: $7 million
Day 3: $5.44 million
Opening Weekend: $17 million
I hope MMW can manage at least that or Disney might ship them back to Columbia. Oh and in 3rd place came God's Not Dead with a surprising $2.8 million, even with literally NO campaign it managed to come close to MMW, it could even pass the $10 million mark.

This sorta reminds me a little bit of when "The Muppets" first opened. It was competing against another overrated young adult book turned movie: "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Down Part 1." The Twilight movie got such terrible reviews (24% on Rotten Tomatoes), but yet became #1 in the box office. On the other hand, "The Muppets" got very very positives reviews and became #2 in the box office.

 

[Muppet fan 123]

The Muppets was up against Twilight 3 I think it was, and at that time everyone was so sick of the Twilight movies, so no one was rushing out to see it. It was also up against family movies Happy Feet 2, Arthur Christmas and the totally overrated Hugo, but it still did well. How is just one stupid YA book with no marketing campaign getting any more money?

Either way, MMW is in second place. It's currently the leader in the family films genre, and it'll hopefully get to the $50 million mark soon. All it's really gotta do to be considered a success is to pass it's budget of $50 million, which shouldn't be too hard.

 

[mr3urious]

MMW has hit the $16 million mark so far, according to Box Office Mojo.

We shouldn't worry too much about this, as the movie is more modestly budgeted compared to Divergent, so it's a less risky investment.

 

[Muppet Master]

The Muppets was up against Twilight 3 I think it was, and at that time everyone was so sick of the Twilight movies, so no one was rushing out to see it. It was also up against family movies Happy Feet 2, Arthur Christmas and the totally overrated Hugo, but it still did well. How is just one stupid YA book with no marketing campaign getting any more money?

Either way, MMW is in second place. It's currently the leader in the family films genre, and it'll hopefully get to the $50 million mark soon. All it's really gotta do to be considered a success is to pass it's budget of $50 million, which shouldn't be too hard.

It'll probably make the $50 million domestically, but it'll need "long legs" as LA Times said, to reach it. Since the last film got $76 million at the foreign box office then can for sure expect it to increase to maybe $90 million or so, and even if it completely bombs in the foreign box office and gets like $20 million (which it won't) we can at least expect MMW to double its $16 million opening to a $32 million and it'll still beat out its budget, so it's a win-win for MMW, but Disney won't be to quick to release another muppet film for a while though. Though if it strictly follows the path of the last muppet film then I see it still grabbing a total of about $50 million.

 

[Drtooth]

MMW has hit the $16 million mark so far, according to Box Office Mojo.

We shouldn't worry too much about this, as the movie is more modestly budgeted compared to Divergent, so it's a less risky investment.

As I've said in another thread, I'm completely sick to death that it's making so little, but as long as it can somehow get to half budget by the end of the weekend, I guess that would be considered not terrible. On the one hand, a 50 million dollar film barely making back its budget is still a better investment than Lone Ranger was. So even then a third Muppet movie wouldn't be a horrible investment, but they'd definitely think twice about it. I'll also repeat, if this is the last Muppet movie ever as a result, it will be a Greek tragedy. A good movie that kills the franchise.

Unless people are that boneheaded to not want to see it because Jason Segal isn't in it. I LOVE Jason for bringing back the franchise and all, he's a great guy... but totally Ty Burnell, Ricky Gervais, and Tina Fey were like a million times better than the humans in that movie. Even Tex Richman.

The Muppets was up against Twilight 3 I think it was, and at that time everyone was so sick of the Twilight movies, so no one was rushing out to see it. It was also up against family movies Happy Feet 2, Arthur Christmas and the totally overrated Hugo, but it still did well. How is just one stupid YA book with no marketing campaign getting any more money?

First off, I wouldn't say Hugo was overrated. No one saw it. Crappy Feet and Arthur Christmas were the only real competition for The Muppets. Then again, The Muppets also opened up on a Wednesday before a vacation weekend, and MMW opened up on a random, weak, Friday in March. And it had Peabody and Sherman and Lego as competition. Which really gets upsetting because I loved both those films, where as Crappy Feet 2 was a weak sequel to an overrated kiddy flick that wasn't that good in the first place and stole an undeserved Oscar. So, if it can at least come in second, is it a win?

Then again, Peabody and Sherman had a modest second place opening, but managed to get a weak number 1 the second week it was out, since 300 had a sharp drop off the second week. Hopefully Divergent will fall off, but I'm worried about the possibility of Noah... which looks...absolutely...dreadful. If it can manage a strong as it could weekday and second weekend, maybe that will be considered successful. Hopefully the overseas will really help the numbers... but overall, I'm getting depressed about this.

And Divergent sucks. I mean... really. Why can't it be another Ender's Game or Instrumental Bones or Lovely Bones or Rattle Me Bones that opened in August and never was heard from again?

 

[Muppet Master]

As I've said in another thread, I'm completely sick to death that it's making so little, but as long as it can somehow get to half budget by the end of the weekend, I guess that would be considered not terrible. On the one hand, a 50 million dollar film barely making back its budget is still a better investment than Lone Ranger was. So even then a third Muppet movie wouldn't be a horrible investment, but they'd definitely think twice about it. I'll also repeat, if this is the last Muppet movie ever as a result, it will be a Greek tragedy. A good movie that kills the franchise.

Unless people are that boneheaded to not want to see it because Jason Segal isn't in it. I LOVE Jason for bringing back the franchise and all, he's a great guy... but totally Ty Burnell, Ricky Gervais, and Tina Fey were like a million times better than the humans in that movie. Even Tex Richman.



First off, I wouldn't say Hugo was overrated. No one saw it. Crappy Feet and Arthur Christmas were the only real competition for The Muppets. Then again, The Muppets also opened up on a Wednesday before a vacation weekend, and MMW opened up on a random, weak, Friday in March. And it had Peabody and Sherman and Lego as competition. Which really gets upsetting because I loved both those films, where as Crappy Feet 2 was a weak sequel to an overrated kiddy flick that wasn't that good in the first place and stole an undeserved Oscar. So, if it can at least come in second, is it a win?

Then again, Peabody and Sherman had a modest second place opening, but managed to get a weak number 1 the second week it was out, since 300 had a sharp drop off the second week. Hopefully Divergent will fall off, but I'm worried about the possibility of Noah... which looks...absolutely...dreadful. If it can manage a strong as it could weekday and second weekend, maybe that will be considered successful. Hopefully the overseas will really help the numbers... but overall, I'm getting depressed about this.

And Divergent sucks. I mean... really. Why can't it be another Ender's Game or Instrumental Bones or Lovely Bones or Rattle Me Bones that opened in August and never was heard from again?

Actually that'd be real sad if Disney decides to shut the gates on the muppets only after they became popular again. I mean I son't think this'll be the last muppet movie ever, I mean that's what we said back when MFS came out and that was a MUCH more severe case what with being a box office bomb and getting mixed to negative reviews. On a lighter note for Muppets Most Wanted, the weekend actuals came out and MMW actually got $17,005,126 on opening weekend instead of the estimate of $16,514,000, that's not a huge difference, but at least it gained 3% instead of losing anything, which is really quite good plus it got a modest $1.5 million in the foriegn market from an unknown place giving it a current worldwide total of $18,505,126, but it's still way too early in the game, and it has yet to be released in foriegn markets in April, so MMW isn't looking so bad after all. Meanwhile Divergent slipped 2.5% from its $56 million total to $54,607,747 losing over a million dollars, see it's already plummeting, and it's not even weekend 2. I'm pretty sure by week 2 Divergent will plummet grusomely like the likes of Twilight and Prometheus. God's Not Dead jumped to $9 million with a nearly 8% increase, I'm sure the film will hold decently in the weeks to come. But in all MMW isen't doing that bad, it's already beaten MFS (not a surprise) and I'm pretty sure the film can hold decently in the weeks before the other family film, Rio 2, comes out, then we just need to watch it fly in the foriegn market. Next week I can see MMW even taking the #1 spot from Divergent, though it's a little stretch. Also Divergent plummeted from Fri. - Sun. while MMW increased from Fri.- Sat. and only had a 27% drop from Sat. to Sun. Though it may be a little early here's my forecast for next weekend which will be real busy.
1. Noah $32 million
2. Divergent $20 million -62%
3. Muppets Most Wanted $13 million -22%
4. Sabotage $8 million
5. God Not Dead $6 million
6. The Raid: Redemption $5 million
7. Cesar Chavez $1 million
Noah will probably be one of those films that get terrible reviews, do decently in the first week then just die until it gets to a total of about $100 million failing to reach its budget. With terrible word-of-mouth and teen auidence informing their friends not to watch it, most likely the film is doomed to plummet during second weekend. Meanwhile MMW will probably only drop lightly if it even drops. With a good two weeks from Rio (not really the biggest competitor, I mean it's not Pixar, Dreamworks, or even the Ice Age, and the last film only made $143 domestically) and with the added advantage that it's spring break and the kids are out and the college peeps who grew up with the muppets it'll surely benefit from that, it could even gain some money but that's probably a stretch, the least I'd expect it would be $10 million, and it also has decent word-of-mouth, I'll be dissapointed if it can't muster at least $10 million. Also, Sabotage is Arnold's next film and well you know, not gonna happen. God Not Dead with pretty good reviews shouldn't fall that much, maybe a 30% fall is in order. Next comes The Raid 2 which though not promising has created a big fanbase overtime, like how Labrinyth and The Dark Crystal did, I don't expect a giant opening weekend, but I can at least expect a $5 million, but at least it can muster $1 million, but the goal for the film is to outgross the first film's total in 3 days. Last, Cesat Chavez with a Latin-American background will probably get a strong total even with a limited release. The bar isn't set that high, but I wouldn't be surprised if it can get over the $1 million I expect.