Weekly Box Office and Film Discussion Thread

[Drtooth]

Basic math challenges that assumption and sets this sequel on track to make more than the original. Anything could happen. However, because the studio expected higher returns, DW stock dipped today. They expected this to be a sure-fire chart-topper (like Despicable Me 2) instead of just a very solid opening. My ire at this being considered a failure is more about industry perceptions than your particular post. It's not all black and white. Any other animated picture would welcome a healthy opening like Dragon 2. I think the franchise is safe.

And I find that idiotic. Now, I would say there is concern at DW since their movies haven't been making much money lately, at least domestically (Turbo opened very week over here, but found an audience in Asian and Latin American countries that put it well over the top, making back almost twice the budget). Other than that, this is studio accounting at it's finest. DM2 had the advantage of opening up on a major holiday weekend on a Wednesday with extremely weak competition the entire month long. Considering the last animated film, one that opened in May, mind you was so unappealing that it didn't even have a double digit million opening with literally no other kid friendly film out but the then month old Rio 2. It internationally made around half its budget. How is that weak?

Plus, well, let's face it. Not everyone can see every movie on opening day. The long term is important. Certain films can still make money months after. Overreacting to a strong but not strong enough opening seems exactly what stockholders would do (don't get me started on them).

 

[jvcarroll]

I get your drift. Anyways it actually made $49,451,323 so this is closer to KFP 2 than a blockbuster film. Better than 22, which made $57 mil. and not $60 mil., pretty weak estimates this weekend. Anyways, here look at the first dragon's gross patterns.


Mar 26–28 1 $43,732,319 - 4,055 - $10,785 $43,732,319 1
Apr 2–4 3 $29,010,044 -33.7% 4,060 +5 $7,145 $92,135,916 2
Apr 9–11 3 $24,863,535 -14.3% 4,007 -53 $6,205 $133,404,438 3
Apr 16–18 2 $19,633,320 -21.0% 3,825 -182 $5,133 $158,251,066 4
Apr 23–25 1 $15,350,213 -21.8% 3,665 -160 $4,188 $178,345,927 5
Apr 30–May 2 2 $10,614,289 -30.9% 3,426 -239 $3,098 $192,173,750 6
May 7–9 3 $6,680,374 -37.1% 3,003 -423 $2,225 $201,013,867 7
May 14–16 5 $5,003,536 -25.1% 2,620 -383 $1,910 $207,647,696 8
May 21–23 9 $1,901,211 -62.0% 1,751 -869 $1,086 $210,990,918 9
May 28–30 10 $1,150,834 -39.5% 825 -926 $1,395 $212,755,053 10
May 28–31 10 $1,513,677 -20.4% 825 -926 $1,835 $213,117,896 10
Jun 4–6 14 $488,283 -57.6% 343 -482 $1,424 $213,883,143 11
Jun 11–13 17 $330,459 -32.3% 281 -62 $1,176 $214,426,381 12
Jun 18–20 29 $167,083 -49.4% 213 -68 $784 $214,764,298 13
Jun 25–27 16 $477,499 +186% 333 +120 $1,434 $215,422,528 14
Jul 2–4 21 $341,760 -28.4% 303 -30 $1,128 $216,156,994 15
Jul 2–5 20 $481,505 +0.8% 303 -30 $1,589 $216,296,739 15
Jul 9–11 22 $317,923 -7.0% 254 -49 $1,252 $216,893,967 16
Jul 16–18 24 $237,392 -25.3% 228 -26 $1,041 $217,387,997 17
Italics indicate four day weekend.

This is not your average gross pattern. A normal movie with the first dragon's opening would make about $150 million in march. Yes, weekday totals will be this dragon film's savor, but still I just can't imagine this film coming close to $217 million, but who know, Ice Age 3 had a $40 million opening compared to its predecessor's $70 million opening and that made $1 million more than its predecessor.

Um...the first Dragon film took in $43 million in its opening weekend and made over $217 million in it's domestic run. Basic math would say a $49 million opening would yield the same. And then there are the international markets. People always forget about those, but they often account for 50% or more of the global total.

In essence, this WILL be considered a blockbuster film. I don't know what you're trying to say with all this. Your "logic" makes little sense to me. But whatever. I'm out. Good luck.

And I find that idiotic. Now, I would say there is concern at DW since their movies haven't been making much money lately, at least domestically (Turbo opened very week over here, but found an audience in Asian and Latin American countries that put it well over the top, making back almost twice the budget). Other than that, this is studio accounting at it's finest. DM2 had the advantage of opening up on a major holiday weekend on a Wednesday with extremely weak competition the entire month long. Considering the last animated film, one that opened in May, mind you was so unappealing that it didn't even have a double digit million opening with literally no other kid friendly film out but the then month old Rio 2. It internationally made around half its budget. How is that weak?

Plus, well, let's face it. Not everyone can see every movie on opening day. The long term is important. Certain films can still make money months after. Overreacting to a strong but not strong enough opening seems exactly what stockholders would do (don't get me started on them).

Much agreed. I just got back from the film and it was fantastic! 4/5 stars for me. I had a lot of fun and I can't wait for the sequel.

 

[Drtooth]

Um...the first Dragon film took in $43 million in its opening weekend and made over $217 million in it's domestic run. Basic math would say a $49 million opening would yield the same. And then there are the international markets. People always forget about those, but they often account for 50% or more of the global total.

The last Dragon movie was released in March, and I swear I saw it in theaters up until the Summer season. It owes its success to staying power, and I don't see why this one wouldn't either. What I don't get is how the international gross is treated. It either sometimes counts or sometimes doesn't. Movies that don't fare well here can and will do well in foreign markets. yet they only count them like half the time. And usually only when they underperform overseas and refuse to make a sequel because of them. That's why Monsters Vs Aliens, which was a modest hit over here , never got a second movie. Meanwhile, you hear about Amazing Spider-Man 2 pulling in its budget (or a huge chunk of it) overseas before it's released domestically.

Anyway, I get the impression that Dreamworks just silently scooted out the Penguins of Madagascar movie. There were rumblings since the second one that it was going to get made, but there were absolutely no stories that it was actually in development or when it was going to come out. Odd. You usually hear everything 2 years in advance, even the primary release date.

 

[Muppet Master]

Anyway, I get the impression that Dreamworks just silently scooted out the Penguins of Madagascar movie. There were rumblings since the second one that it was going to get made, but there were absolutely no stories that it was actually in development or when it was going to come out. Odd. You usually hear everything 2 years in advance, even the primary release date.

I know, that's not going to do it any good. I thought it was going to be out like late 2015, but barely a few months in advance releasing a weird trailer is not good. It just looks like one of those billions of DTV penguin specials.

 

[Drtooth]

'cept it doesn't, cuz they're going for a straight up movie version of the Penguins... after they decided to take the name from the TV show. So no Marleen, the two Italian Brooklyn stereotype Gorillas, or that Alligator voiced by Richard Kind. Rico also doesn't have the scar he has in the show either.

I'm sure that somehow this was finished ahead of schedule or something, but it seems like they're trying to dump this out before a certain other group of Ensemble Darkhorse movie characters get their spinoff Christmas of 2015. Somehow, I can't help but feel a sense of ennui on Dreamworks' behalf, dumping it off late in the month of November after Disney's big animated film. Which worked out perfectly well last time (which was a shame, since Rise of the Guardians was actually pretty good, but the concept sounded too strange for the audience).


Meanwhile, a week before its released, Paramount announced plans for a fifth Transformers movie. Even though Bay himself swore he wouldn't do another after the fourth. I hope to see a reboot with a new direction.

 

[Drtooth]

Jeez. Looks like Dreamworks freaking wussyed out because the movie didn't open to a trilliondybillion on opening weekend, and I can't even find a showing in 3-D on the second weekend it's out. A week where the only competition is a niche R-rated musical and the equally niche Think like a Man 2.

WOW. Such lack of confidence, eh, Dreamworks? Even the theaters are turning cowardly because of it.

 

[Muppet Master]

Jeez. Looks like Dreamworks freaking wussyed out because the movie didn't open to a trilliondybillion on opening weekend, and I can't even find a showing in 3-D on the second weekend it's out. A week where the only competition is a niche R-rated musical and the equally niche Think like a Man 2.

WOW. Such lack of confidence, eh, Dreamworks? Even the theaters are turning cowardly because of it.

Look the "Dragon" franchise is one of the most beloved of all animated movies. The first dragon film could be mistaken for a pixar film with its 98% RT rating and its $217 million domestic gross. The fact that the still 92% fresh sequel could only manage an opening weekend $7 million more than that with all the hype and all the acclaim is real sad and actually kind of confusing. FYI, box office mojo estimated a $67 MILLION OPENING WEEKEND, with that being said, at the rate the film is going it hasn't even reached that in a 5-day span with $65 million as of Wednesday. While I can't exactly say it's a disappointment yet (it might have a killer hold this weekend) as of now I can't imagine this film matching the last one's stellar $217 million domestic total. Furthermore, I'll compare this film to Pixar's Ratatouille considering they had nearly equivalent opening weekends, and both came out in June. That film had a nice $206 million at the end of its run, so let's see if Dragon has what it takes to even reach that. At its 5-day total that film had a killer $72 million and ended Thursday with $80 million. So with only a $47 million opening Ratatouille got $7-$10 million on weekdays while with $49 million Dragon has $4-$5 million grosses on weekdays. So, Dragon needs to hold well this weekend like fall 40% or less. It's already gotten behind Ratatouille, so it's not certain the film can reach $200 million domestically at all.

 

[jvcarroll]

Jeez. Looks like Dreamworks freaking wussyed out because the movie didn't open to a trilliondybillion on opening weekend, and I can't even find a showing in 3-D on the second weekend it's out. A week where the only competition is a niche R-rated musical and the equally niche Think like a Man 2.

WOW. Such lack of confidence, eh, Dreamworks? Even the theaters are turning cowardly because of it.

That freakout has more to do with itchy stockholders than anything else. No amount of Chicken Littles, industry professionals and otherwise, who keep crying that the sky is falling around DreamWorks are going to harm the viability of the Dragons franchise. That said, the box office has been a strange place this year. Trends in general seem to be way off the mark from predictions.

Look the "Dragon" franchise is one of the most beloved of all animated movies. The first dragon film could be mistaken for a pixar film with its 98% RT rating and its $217 million domestic gross. The fact that the still 92% fresh sequel could only manage an opening weekend $7 million more than that with all the hype and all the acclaim is real sad and actually kind of confusing. FYI, box office mojo estimated a $67 MILLION OPENING WEEKEND, with that being said, at the rate the film is going it hasn't even reached that in a 5-day span with $65 million as of Wednesday. While I can't exactly say it's a disappointment yet (it might have a killer hold this weekend) as of now I can't imagine this film matching the last one's stellar $217 million domestic total. Furthermore, I'll compare this film to Pixar's Ratatouille considering they had nearly equivalent opening weekends, and both came out in June. That film had a nice $206 million at the end of its run, so let's see if Dragon has what it takes to even reach that. At its 5-day total that film had a killer $72 million and ended Thursday with $80 million. So with only a $47 million opening Ratatouille got $7-$10 million on weekdays while with $49 million Dragon has $4-$5 million grosses on weekdays. So, Dragon needs to hold well this weekend like fall 40% or less. It's already gotten behind Ratatouille, so it's not certain the film can reach $200 million domestically at all.

I don't know what you're trying to say with all of that gobblegook, but here's the run down comparing Dragons to Dragons:

The first film took in:
$57,883,758 Domestic Six-Day Gross
$217,581,231: Domestic Total Gross

The second film took in:
$65,191,838 Domestic Six-Day Gross

All things being equal, basic math would place the Domestic Total Gross well over the last film's $217M and could climb upwards of $240 if it keeps momentum. I predict the likelihood of this sequel making something between those two figures, and most likely over $200M. The only variables are whether auds will shell out the money to see it twice like they did with the first film and if theaters will maintain screens for them. It's doing very well, so I wouldn't see them running from it quite yet.

It should also be noted that the second film also cost $20M less to make and received substantially less advertising. This is a hit by any measurement. It's just not quite the hit that the studio expected.

Also, we are so egocentric in this country that many of us neglect to notice that half the worldwide gross often comes from the Global Box Office. 56% was the first film's record. The sequel now stands at 35.9% yet has only been released in 1/3 of overseas theaters so far. I'd say it's on track to make a comparable sum this time too.

 

[Drtooth]

As I was saying before the board's upgrade kicked me off as soon as I was finished typing...

That freakout has more to do with itchy stockholders than anything else. No amount of Chicken Littles, industry professionals and otherwise, who keep crying that the sky is falling around DreamWorks are going to harm the viability of the Dragons franchise. That said, the box office has been a strange place this year. Trends in general seem to be way off the mark from predictions.

I know, but it would be a shame of movie theaters got that skittish as well. It's kind of annoying, actually. There's a theater that I frequent for pricing reasons, and they have this annoying habit of showing as little 3-D showings of animated movies as possible (when 3-D basically only works for animation anyway), but having as many 3-D showings as possible when it comes to a Super-Hero movie. It's probably supply and demand for them, but every time I want to see something in that format I either have to see a weird showing (early or late) or they don't have one at all, and when I don't want to see it in 3-D, I have to. I'd definitely go to other theaters, but even at matinee prices (which they barely have anyway) they tend to cost a fortune.

But it would suck if theaters got skittish and removed showings.

It should also be noted that the second film also cost $20M less to make and received substantially less advertising. This is a hit by any measurement. It's just not quite the hit that the studio expected.

Not that it didn't get a lot of attention before hand, but I'm disappointed that there hasn't been any second week follow up commercials for the film. Not even a weaselly "Number one Family Film" title. Yet, I see nothing but commercials for Dragons Go-Gurt, stupid candies of which one was designed by the guy who did MAUS back when he worked for Topps (not kidding), Superman 64-esque type video games, Happy Meals, and the actual toy line. Just no commercials for the actual movie. Now I get Dreamworks films haven't been making mad cheese domestically since Croods, but for them and their stockholders to be that defeatist about it is ridiculous. Yet, Disney is still pimping out Maleficent in it's 3rd or 4th week.

Also, we are so egocentric in this country that many of us neglect to notice that half the worldwide gross often comes from the Global Box Office. 56% was the first film's record. The sequel now stands at 35.9% yet has only been released in 1/3 of overseas theaters so far. I'd say it's on track to make a comparable sum this time too.

Yeah, I hate the fact we sometimes count the international and sometimes don't. Especially when movies do better overseas. Turbo was a domestic flop, but including the international, it made a respectable $282 Million. They pretty much make films for the international market now (Transformers 4 had a reality competition show for Chinese cast members), so why aren't those markets as important as, or more important than the domestic? The Marvel films are pretty much making their budget back before they actually premiere in the US!

 

[Muppet Master]

After How to Train Your Dragon 2's weak debut last weekend, there was a hope that the well-reviewed movie would perform similar to its predecessor: slow out of the gate, but leggy in the long-run. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be the case this time around. The animated sequel fell 49 percent to $25.3 million this weekend; in comparison, the first movie eased 34 percent in its second outing. Through 10 days, How to Train Your Dragon 2 has earned $95.2 million, and is on track for a final tally around $170 million. (boxofficemojo.com)

This is what I'm thinking now, so ya it's not doing so hot here, it's the truth, it's just really sad that even with so much critical acclaim that the film won't even come close to its predecessor's total, I looked negatively, and now its even worse than I expected, this is literally Kung Fu Panda 2 all over again. Also here's what forbes has to say on the topic.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianso...on-how-to-train-your-dragon-2-disappointment/